Sunday, July 11, 2010

Players Who Have Gained and Lost Value This Offseason

In the recently updated Top 150, you'll notice some players have moved up or down due to all the recent free agent signings. Let's take a more in depth look at the players who have been most affected by the offseason activity.

On The Rise

  • Kevin Durant: Last season, his numbers were very close to LeBron's and he was just slightly the best player in fantasy. This year, with James joining the Heat, the throne of fantasy king is clearly Durant's.
  • Chris Paul: Paul also moves up over LeBron. Paul dominates 2 categories that are very hard to find: assists and steals. If you're in a category based league, he can win these categories for you on his own.
  • Andrea Bargnani: With Bosh officially out of Toronto, Bargnani will be the biggest scoring threat on the team. I'm expecting career highs in scoring. threes, and rebounding from Bargnani, to go along with his great shot blocking numbers.
  • Antawn Jamison: With LeBron James leaving Cleveland, Jamison becomes the primary offensive option. I anticipate Jamison having numbers close to what he had 2 years ago in Washington when Gilbert Arenas missed the entire year. Mo Williams should also see an up tick in his stats.
  • Paul Millsap: With Boozer leaving the Jazz, Millsap steps into the starting line up. In his career as a starter, Millsap has averaged 16 points, 10 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1 steal, and 1 block while shooting 54% from the field. Those numbers are great across the board. Given that he's improved over the last year, I wouldn't be surprised if he betters those numbers this season.
  • Jason Richardson: With Stoudemire out of the way, Richardson becomes the top scoring option in Phoenix. This guy can flat out score and he's had some big games in his career. Don't be surprised if his scoring rises into the mid 20's this year.
  • Raymond Felton: Felton has a serious chance of putting up career numbers with the Knicks. Going from a slow paced team to an up tempo, run-and-gun offense likely ensures he's going to have a career year.
  • Anthony Randolph: He's a sleeper every year, but I feel he's worth a close look now that he's been traded to the Knicks. If he can get 25+ minutes a game, he can put up some big numbers. He's shown his ability in Golden State whenever he's been given the opportunity to play meaningful minutes.
  • Drew Gooden: He should be the opening day starting PF for the Bucks and could get some run at C. He's had opportunities in the past to play a significant role, but has never taken full advantage. Still, he's worth a look late in your draft as the Bucks are very thin on bigs.

Sliding Down

  • LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh: Due to these 3 players joining forces, they will be more valuable in real life than they are in fantasy. There is just no way all 3 can put up the numbers they have in recent years when they were on separate teams unless 1 of them gets injured for an extended period of time. I have James ranked #3 because he can give you numbers in a variety of stats, but I would not be surprised if he performs a bit lower than that. Wade and Bosh have taken a major tumble down the rankings. On draft day, don't overreach for these guys or you will be disappointed at the end of the season.
  • Joakim Noah: Noah should take a slight hit in rebounding and scoring with the presence of Boozer. He should still be a great source of blocks next season.
  • Andris Biedrins: The signing of David Lee is a serious threat to Biedrins. Though not likely, there's a chance Biedrins completely falls out of the starting line up if the Warriors choose to feature Lee at the C spot with Brandan Wright or Ekpe Udoh at the PF. At the very least, there will be periods where Golden State goes small and Biedrins will be on the bench. Lee has also been a big time rebounder the last couple of years, which will clearly hurt Biedrins' on the boards. Additionally, Andris isn't coming off the greatest of years. He's a player I would stay away from unless it's late in your draft and you still have a hole at C.
  • Corey Maggette: With Maggette joining a team loaded with wings, it's not clear how many minutes Maggette will play. Salmons is most likely the opening day starter and Delfino, Mbah A Moute, and Ilyasova will also be in line for minutes, so it's very muddled situation unless some more moves happen. Things will get even more complicated when Michael Redd returns from his injury. Throw in Maggette's injury history and he's a player you have to stay away from at this point.
  • Michael Beasley: Another player traded into a crowded situation. I don't see him starting for the Wolves. He'll probably end up being the back up PF behind Kevin Love as long as Al Jefferson gets traded. If Jefferson is still on the team on opening day, I have no idea what role Beasley will have. We have to wait and see what kind of moves the Wolves much in the remainder of the offseason to properly value Beasley.
  • Taj Gibson: With Boozer coming to Chicago, Gibson will be moved to the bench. Because of this, he's fallen out of the Top 150. He's worth a look in deeper leagues in case Boozer gets hurt again, but in a standard sized league I wouldn't waste a pick on him.

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